New Variants do not Change The Equation.

11 days ago I went out on a limb and called it over.  The data told me that we must be reaching herd immunity.  We are also exiting winter when seasonal viruses normally start to wane.  Now even the main stream media is starting to notice.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/z0xR66mr0f

It is obvious from the new modeling released yesterday that Theresa Tam Does not read the Wall St. Journal.  I don’t find that surprising.  After seeing her perform for 11 months now, I sincerely doubt that she can read.  The most important thing I have learned from Theresa Tam and Deena Hinshaw is that you don’t have to be smart to be a doctor.  That really scares the shit out of me.

Yesterday the government of Canada published their new modelling.  The plot below is the model output.

Theresa Tam and her cohort of Idiots at health Canada simply will not let this go.  Notice how they believe that within days infections in Canada will skyrocket to levels unseen in any country due to the new variants.

Any competent Heath department would not release information that they did not understand and could not defend.  This is Canada though, history tells us that you cannot expect competence.  Canadians have an unblemished record of paying for far more then they receive.  Yesterday did nothing to change that sad fact.  The very first question Health Canada got from Michelle Rempel they could not answer.

 

Seriously this wasn’t even a difficult question.  It is like no one at health Canada has ever considered that vaccinating people might have an effect on how the virus spreads.

I don’t need to know the model inputs to know that this model is garbage.  My reasons are below.

  1. It comes from the Trudeau government.

Anything from this group that is not both idiotic and evil was released by accident.  They were all aware that the model results had been released so this level of stupidity was not accidental.  It had been worked on.

  1. We have been to this movie before.

The Models that health Canada release in the spring also showed run away infections.  Not only did that not happen, the models were wrong on the day they were released.

  1. Infections would be climbing right through the summer.

Coronaviruses are seasonal.  When summer arrives the level of infections will drop.  Any model that shows infections from a seasonal virus climbing in the summer is wrong.  I don’t need to run the numbers to know that.

  1. The model assumes that infections can be decreased with mitigation measures.

Of course that is the whole reason for running the model.  To convince us we must remain locked down or we are all going to die.  The problem is that there is no basis for this.  There is no evidence that any of the mitigation measures have worked.  The model is using a false assumption when it comes to mitigation measures so how accurately does it handle infections without mitigation measures?  If the assumptions about mitigation measures are not correct it means you do not understand how the virus transmits.  If you do not understand how the virus transmits you cannot model it.

 

So what is my evidence that mitigation measures don’t work?  Below is a comparison of South Dakota to Alberta.

Even though Jason Kenney denies it Alberta locked down again this winter.  Public gatherings were restricted on Nov 24th and businesses were closed on December 13th.  Prior to the closures, businesses and people were subject to a myriad of conflicting and ridiculous regulations.  South Dakota did nothing.  If I took the labels off the plot could you tell which was which?  Could you point out when every new rule was enacted?  It seems no rules gets the same results as stringent rules.

You could argue that on a per capita basis Alberta had fewer infections so their rules must have worked, but you would be wrong.  An infection does not travel from one population to another it travels from one person to another.  The key to the total number of infections is the number of active cases you have and the number of new infections that are caused by those active infections.

Lockdown proponents will tell you reducing interactions is key.  Each infected person will pass the virus on to fewer people.  If that is true then every new infection in South Dakota should lead to more future infections then in Alberta.  So did it?  No it did not.  See the plot below.

This plot starts July 1st for Alberta and June 4th for South Dakota.  I have done this to line up the peaks of each infection.  There is no difference between Alberta and South Dakota during any period.  The only real difference is that South Dakota did not kill anyone with lockdowns.

In the summer (the red line) both places averaged 1 new infection for every active infection.  Then as winter approached (the purple line) infections went up to 1.13 for South Dakota and 1.16 for Alberta.  So the rapid rise in infections in both jurisdictions was caused by only a small change in how many people an infected person subsequently infected.  After the infections peaked the number fell to 0.8 in both places.

An infected South Dakota resident went on to infect the same number of people as an infected Albertan.  The only thing that changed that number was the season not any ridiculous government regulation.  This only stands to reason.  Contrary to what the government tells you asymptomatic transmission is exceptionally rare.  Pre symptomatic transmission is also rare but possible.  People are pre-symptomatic for only a few days so not much transmission can be expected from pre-symptomatic people.  Once someone has symptoms they are very contagious.  Thankfully symptomatic people tend to stay at home without a government order.

No one with even an average IQ is shocked that restricting healthy people has no effect on a viral outbreak.  Average IQs must be very rare in government.  But what our government lacks in intelligence they make up for with cunning and dishonesty.  There is not much our government understands but they do know that frightened people don’t think straight.  The Canadian government is using the threat of new variants to scare the public in to accepting the permanent loss of their rights.

Right now some Canadians are too frightened to understand the ineffectiveness of the lockdowns makes the new variant discussion moot.  It does not matter how many new variants are out there or how deadly they might be.  We cannot prevent them from spreading.  The only thing we can do is develop treatments.  Doctors have already applied many effective treatments to the original virus.  There is nothing to indicate that these treatments won’t also work on the variants.  As long as the government stays out of the way we will be fine.  I realize that is a very, very big if.

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