Vaccination Mathematics

In a previous post I mentioned that I had a group of likeminded friends have been helping me uncover pertinent data.  The video below is from one of them.  It is very good but very long.  If you want to skip ahead to the good parts Jason (my likeminded friend) has provided a guide to the good parts.

Here is his guide;

3:20 COVID-19 naming origin, Hydroxychloroquine unsafe? = Lies

9:15 White Coat Summit, Big Tech Censorship/Fired for speaking the truth, pushback against tyranny

13:30 Myths, Lies and Cold Hard Facts (vaccine = return to normal?)

23:00 Experimental agent problems, vaccine studies/attempts

27:40 Vaccine unknowns

31:20 Vaccine effectiveness (won’t stop transmission?)

36:00 Racial minority vaccine prioritization (are they unfairly targeted?), vaccine PSA = we are the experiment

47:30 Vaccine Recommendations

51:00 AFLDS fight against urge to mandate vaccine (petition)


And here is the video;

The last time Simone Gold posted a video it went viral and Youtube took it down so please share this.

Dr. Gold spends a lot of time discussing Vaccines and Vaccine risk.  As it so often happens, when my friends send me information it ties in to what I am looking at from a different perspective.  About a week ago my daughter got in to a debate with someone who said “why would I take a vaccine that is 95% effective for a virus that has a 99% survival rate”?

My daughter pointed out that one has nothing to do with the other.  She was correct but that statement got me thinking.  What do the numbers really say?  I checked the Alberta Government website and I looked at deaths per case.  The data I am quoting is current to January 13th.  The UCP, like many governments, has been playing fast and loose with the Covid data.  I know not all those people had or died of covid but it is the only data I have so let’s go with it.

My daughter’s debate partner was close to correct.  In Alberta 1.2% of Covid cases resulted in deaths.  That does not tell the whole story though.  Your risk of dying from Covid is very age dependent.  Here is what the age breakdown looks like.

My daughter and her debate partner are in their 20s so their chance of surviving Covid is not 99% it is 99.98%.  I am in the 50 to 59 age group so my chance of surviving Covid is 99.71%.  I am no longer young and I don’t even have a 1% chance of dying from covid, but even this number is misleadingly high.

These are the chances of dying once you already have covid.  One missing and very important number is the chance of getting covid.  In previous posts I discussed cross T cell immunity.  Because coronaviruses are so similar many people already have some immunity.  The best example comes from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship.  Those people were quarantined on the ship with covid positive patients.  This was a perfect Petri dish for cultivating illness yet 83% of the people did not get infected.

If 80% of us are already immune then my chance of getting and then dying from Covid is

20% x 0.29% = 0.058%

Or put another way my chance of surviving this world ending apocalyptic pandemic is 99.942%.  I like those odds, but even this is somewhat misleading.  Nowhere in the world has reached 3% infection yet.  Alberta is at 2.6 % and will probably hit 3% by spring.  It took 2 full seasons of Covid to reach 3% so to infect the 20% who are susceptible will take another 11 years.  That means I have a 0.058% chance of dying from Covid sometime in the next 11 years.  This hardly makes me want to line up for a vaccine.

If you don’t agree with the cross T cell immunity argument the numbers don’t really get any better.  If we are all susceptible to covid it will take another 64 years for all of us to get infected.  In this case I have a 0.29% chance of Dying from covid sometime in the next 64 years.  I can guarantee you, with or without covid, I have a 100% chance of dying in the next 64 years.

There are some disturbing reports out now about adverse side effects and deaths from the Vaccines.  Norway has suspended their program after 23 people died.  They have only been Vaccinating people for 20 days.  I don’t know how safe or unsafe the vaccine is.  I do know I have no compelling reason to take it.