More Vaccination Mathematics

Many wealthy countries are rapidly vaccinating their populations now with some very interesting results.  Qatar had very few problems with Covid until after they started vaccinating people.  Vaccinations began in late December and COVID cases started increasing shortly after.  See below.

Worse for Qatar their highest death rates have happened since vaccination began.

Israel has seen something similar.  I have discussed Israel before.  Israel is vaccinating their population faster than any other country.  They have already completely vaccinated 53% of their population.  COVID cases and deaths are falling but, as I previously discussed, they were falling rapidly in Israel before vaccinations started.  Vaccines did not change the rate of decrease.

It is too early to say if Vaccines are benefitting in Israel.  The same cannot be said about the cost.  Shortly after starting vaccinations Israel saw a rash of deaths.  All the excess deaths were Seniors (see below).

Israel rushed to vaccinate everyone to save seniors.  Unfortunately, is looks like the vaccine may have killed many seniors.  Notice also that there was absolutely no reason to vaccinate anyone under the age of 65.  There are no excess deaths for people under the age of 65.  You can not argue that COVID is a risk to that age group.

Of course, we are told that no one is safe until we are all vaccinated.  That is the single most iodic thing said in the last 13 months when almost everything uttered was idiotic.  If a vaccinated person can still be infected by an un-vaccinated person, the vaccine does not work.  In that case, why does anyone get the vaccine?

The reality is that very few people benefit from being Vaccinated.  For the average person under the age of 65 COVID is not life threatening.  The vaccine carries more risk than the virus for almost everyone.  Why would we even try to Vaccinate everyone?  It is an enormous waste of time and money.

More importantly, the majority of People will never get COVID in the first place.  After 2 seasons and with variants now running amok, only 3.5% of Albertans have tested positive.  Most of those people had mild or no symptoms.  There are still only 3 countries that have exceeded 10%.  No one in government is asking the obvious question.  Why aren’t more people getting sick?

Maybe governments are not asking because they already know the answer.  Contact tracing shows that you can be quarantined with an infectious person and only 18% of the time will they infect you.  This is almost exactly the percentage we saw on the diamond princess cruise ship.  After being quarantined together for weeks only 17% of people got infected.  There seems to be a high level of pre-existing immunity already in the population.  More and more studies like this one are confirming that.

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(21)00145-2/abstract

42% of people in this study who had no known exposure to the virus already had SARs-CoV-2 antigens in their blood.

There is also this study that showed severe cases occur almost exclusively to people who are vitamin D deficient.

96% of severe and critical COVID infections occur with people who are vitamin D deficient.  If you are under the age of 65 and not vitamin D deficient your COVID risk is near zero.  The risk of the Vaccines may be small, but the risk of the virus is even smaller.  We are increasing the overall level of harm by insisting that everyone be vaccinated.

If you consider pre-existing immunity, vaccinating everyone carries a higher risk than letting the virus run its course.  That is something this author points out in this article with some basic math.

https://thecritic.co.uk/vaccine-certification-when-intolerance-meets-hypochondria/

An unvaccinated person imposes a 1 in 14 million risk of seriously infecting another person.  The Vaccine carries a 1 in 2.5 million risk of serious illness.  For me to protect someone else I must incur a personal risk 6 times higher than the threat I pose to them.  Call me anti-social, but I really do not care that much about strangers.

Vaccinate the people who are truly at risk and any other nervous Nellie who wants it.  Let them isolate or shelter in place while they wait for the vaccine.  In the meantime, let the rest of us get on with our own damn lives.  Why is this so difficult for people to understand?