With every passing day more information is released that casts doubt on the need and effectiveness of lockdowns.  This was just released in Ireland.

This is exactly what we saw in Alberta’s numbers.  The hospitals were emptied in April in anticipation of a wave that never came.  The rest of the year hospitals remained empty.  This was the primary lie about lockdowns.  We had to lockdown to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

The next lie about lockdowns was that they would prevent the spread of the virus.  Time and data are also exposing that lie.  Even worse for the architects of the lie, people are starting to notice.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-virus-lockdowns-dont-appear-to-have-worked-as-advertised-2304332/

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/its-time-truth-one-year-after-lockdowns-began

From the very beginning of this farce the mainstream media have been ardent lockdown supporters.  The more ridiculous the restrictions the more lavish the praise for the Tyrant.  The media has been complicit in thousands of lockdown murders.

Things will get very uncomfortable for the media lockdown cheer leaders as more people realize what colossal mistakes lockdowns were.  That is probably why they are changing their language and trying to deflect blame.  The Zero hedge article quotes a reporter from Bloomberg that says this.

“[I]t was not crazy to rely on more-primitive measures. How successful those measures have been will remain a matter of much research and debate…. In the U.S. it’s much harder to know how many lives all the testing and quarantining and mask-wearing and lockdowns have saved.”

Did you get that?  Lockdowns worked it is just really hard to know how well they worked.  Nothing to see here folks, and even if there was, you cannot possibly understand it.

If everyone had locked down the reporter would be correct.  When everyone does the same thing it is hard to evaluate the effects of doing something different.  Thankfully not everyone did the same thing.  There were 2 places that did nothing at all, South Dakota and Belarus.

I have discussed South Dakota many times.  They did nothing other than ask people to not be stupid.  You simply can’t do that in a country that has elected Justin Trudeau twice.  South Dakota had the same numbers as North Dakota where they locked down.  That alone is enough to prove lockdowns do not work but Belarus is even more interesting.

Belarus is a small land locked country in central Europe.  10 million people live in a country about 1/3 the size of Alberta.  Belarus did absolutely nothing to try and prevent the spread of Covid.  In March their President, Alexander Lukashenko, had a formula for handling Covid.  He told people that the best thing they could do is play hockey, drink vodka, and use saunas.  Of course, he was ridiculed for this.  Now 1 year later how did all that hot drunken hockey work out?

The plot below compares covid cases per capita for Belarus and every country that it borders.  The countries are listed from west to east.  I put Canada in on the right for comparison.

Belarus had one of the lowest infection rates in Europe.  They were lower than any neighbor except Russia.  That is very impressive, but case counts can be misleading.  Every country tests differently.  Also testing positive is not what is important.  How many people die is far more important.  Here is the same plot for deaths/capita.

One of these things is not like the other.  Belarus did not prevent infections but then neither did the lockdowns.  What Belarus prevented was deaths.  They avoided excess deaths by avoiding lockdowns.

The Bloomberg reporter was trying to muddy the waters by claiming that it is hard to know how many people were saved by the lockdowns.  That is just another media lie.  It is very easy to determine how many people were saved by the lockdown.  The answer is ZERO.  A much better question is how many people were killed by the lockdowns?  We may need that number when we put the people responsible for the lockdowns on trial.  Do not let the media tell you they are not among those responsible for this atrocity.

There are times my rants get away from me.  They take on a life of their own.  This is one of those times.  I apologize for the length and all the graphs.  Please stay with it.  I do get to the point eventually.

In my last post I showed that Canada has not had an excess death since June.  That same day Statscan published this report.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210310c-eng.htm

This report is interesting for 2 different reasons.  I want to start with the excess death numbers.  My numbers show 7,347 excess deaths, far below the official COVID count of 15,606.  The Statscan report show excess deaths to the week ending December 19^th as 13,798 very close to the official covid total of 14,154.  So why the discrepancy?  To figure that out we need to get in to the sausage making.

Excess deaths are the actual number of deaths minus the expected deaths.  Let’s start with expected deaths.  I don’t know how stats can produced their expected deaths but I know how I did mine.  I adjusted deaths for population and age.  With 10 years of history from stats can and I get this.

You can clearly see deaths go up in Canada every year.  That is because every year there are more of us so I adjust for population using data from Statscan. I turned the plot in to this.

Even after adjusting for population yearly deaths are still rising.  That is because we are getting older.  Every year the percentage of Canadians over 80 increases.  So I need to adjust for this by flattening the curve to get this.

You can see the COVID peak in the spring of 2020.  It was equivalent to a bad flu year.  It will forever be a mystery how we survived those flu years without a lockdown, but I digress.  Now that I have adjusted the numbers I can use that to construct my average year and what I expect in 2020.  See below.

I have also added the Statscan expected deaths.  They have done more smoothing than me but you can see we agree closely.  I have about 1000 (0.3%) more expected deaths than Statscan.  Statscan expected the highest week to be week three.  In the last 10 years this has never happened, week one is always the highest as it is in my forecast.  Those 2 weeks make up half of the difference between Statscan and me.  It seems they only did it to lower the expected deaths which increases the excess deaths.

The big difference between Statscan and my numbers is the total deaths.  It might be surprising, but on March 10^th even Stascan did not know how many people died in Canada in 2020.  Imagine that, tomorrow our Government will tell you with absolute certainty exactly how many people died of COVID even though they don’t know how many people died last year.  Odd how one number can be so accurate while we guess at the other for months isn’t it?

This is what Stats Can released on March 10^th.

The data in the green oval is obviously wrong.  Stats can releases new numbers every month and the numbers are always 8 weeks behind.  Even though the numbers are 8 weeks behind, some provinces still don’t have complete numbers.  BC and Alberta are very good, Ontario and Quebec are awful.  So what Numbers are statscan and I using if even the March numbers are incomplete?

We are both adjusting the numbers up.  Again I don’t know how stats can is doing it but I do know how I do it.  Whenever I present the Canadian numbers on my blog I take the latest release and adjust them up.  My adjustments are based on how far out the last release was from the new release over the same weeks.  The bar chart below shows how many deaths I have added to each release.

When I use this methodology for the latest release this is what I get.

Deaths in the last half of 2020 ran right on average.  Statscan however applies an even larger adjustment to their own numbers.

The top blue line is Statscan.  According to Statscan we have been seeing excess deaths for almost the entire period.  Statscan’s adjustments are suspect for 2 reasons.  First the magnitude is so large.  This is what their adjustment looks like compared to mine.  Remember mine is based on how far out the numbers have been historically.

Statscan wants you to believe we have had 13,798 excess deaths based on data they have adjusted up by 10,515 deaths.  Their excess deaths are almost completely adjustments.

The other problem is the timing of the adjusted deaths.  Statscan’s adjusted deaths peaked the week of November 7^th.  That is an odd time for deaths to peak in any year especially when you consider that COVID deaths rose steadily until January 25^th.  See below.

Statscan has made adjustments that are obviously wrong.  I am certain these numbers will be quietly adjusted down later this year.

So, Statscan lied to support the official COVID total of 14,154.  That makes the last half of the report very interesting.  Here is a quote from the last part of the report.

“However, more recently, the number of excess deaths has been higher than the number of deaths due to COVID-19, and these deaths are affecting younger populations, suggesting that other factors, including possible indirect impacts of the pandemic, are now at play.”

That is a very convoluted way to say the lockdowns are killing people.

Statscan will fudge the death numbers to match the covid totals because they know no one will notice when they finally release the real numbers, but this is a bridge too far.  Sooner or later people will notice young people without COVID are dying in large numbers.  Statscan has shown they are willing to carry water for the government.  They have also shown they will not carry it through the prison door.  The government will have to do that for themselves.

The main stream media immediately fixated on the 13,798 excess deaths as you can see in this report.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7687727/excess-deaths-coronavirus-canada-covid-19/

You can always count on the mainstream media to report fake numbers as long as they are scary.  Thankfully, it did not take long for media Trudeau does not control to notice the last half of the report.

BOMBSHELL: Stats Canada claims lockdowns, not COVID-19, are now driving ‘excess deaths’ | News | LifeSite (lifesitenews.com)

The damn is starting to break.  More and more people are starting to notice lockdowns were a colossal mistake.  We did not save a single senior but we did kill thousands even millions of young people.

There is no scientific basis for a lockdown to prevent viral spread.  There was a lot of science indicating lockdowns would come with a horrible cost.  The data is showing that now.  Despite all this, lockdowns were very popular with politicians, bureaucrats, and Karens everywhere.  Of the 3, Karen was by far the most important.  Politicians could not have done this without Karen’s support.

Next time Karen is screaming about your mask and lecturing you about staying home, remember this.  Karen does not have the moral high ground, you do.  The government decided you need to forfeit your life for Karen’s protection.  Karen whole heartedly agreed.  Karen is evil.

The government is evil.  Jason, Justin, Deena, and Theresa, they are all evil.  Somehow everyone who caused this must be held to account.  That includes the Politicians, Bureaucrats, and Karens.

My brother sent me this video this morning.

He urged me to sign the petition.  I told him that I could not.    I can not sign the petition because I can not do anything that legitimizes the lockdowns.  There is no justification for the lockdowns or any of the other ridiculous restrictions.  Anyone who signs this petition is agreeing that the lockdowns are okay if the government sets out criteria to eventually lift them.  Again, this is like asking the person punching you in the face to determine when he wants to stop.

Of course, my brother knows this.  He is just so tired of the lockdowns he is willing to make a deal with the devil to get rid of them.  I suspect many Canadians feel the same as my brother.  They are willing to pretend the lockdowns were necessary if the government agrees to lift them.  This is a mistake.  If you sign this petition you are telling government that it acceptable to eliminate your rights whenever they want.  All they need to do is contrive an emergency.

If you legitimize lockdowns the government will use them again.  Each time they use them the restrictions will get worse.  How do I know this?  We have been to this movie before.  Climate change is another government sponsored “emergency”.

Most people have heard that we have a climate “crisis” and that it is caused by CO2 from burning fossil fuels.  There are a couple pertinent points that almost no one has heard.

• Mother nature releases CO2 all on her own. Humans make up only 3% of the total CO2 emissions every year.
• Almost all the predicted warming comes from water vapor not CO2.

The theory is that by increasing total emissions by a paltry 3% we cause a small amount of warming.  That warming causes more evaporation and then water vapor takes over.  Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas, it absorbs way more energy than CO2.  In fact, it competes with CO2 for energy.

This is what makes the theory of anthropogenic green house gas warming so ridiculous.  Once you get the increased water vapor you no longer need CO2.  This means once it warms up it will never cool off.  It is very hard to explain all the ice ages with this theory.  Also, according to the theory once the warming starts you cannot stop it.  This would mean the earth is catastrophically unstable and would have burned up long ago.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming is laughable as a theory, but governments and the lunatic left would not let it go.  To placate them everyone finally agreed that yes, it is a problem, and we should do something about it.  We thought if we acknowledged their irrational paranoia of warm weather they would go away.  We were even willing to make some token gestures to keep them happy.

Where did this get us?  Our Prime Moron cancelled 3 pipelines, Canadian courts cancelled the 4^th, and creepy Joe the 5^th.  We subsidized and fast-tracked windmill projects everywhere.  34 Texans were killed by windmills just last month.  That death toll will be nothing compared to what will happen when Canadians cannot afford to heat their homes due to Justin’s carbon tax.  Playing along with these evil lunatics has disastrous long-term implications.

Politicians are destructive, left wing politicians are often homicidal.  Michelle Rempel like every other Canadian politician is left wing.  She is just not as left as most.  Because she is not extreme left, I used to give her a pass.  I cannot do that anymore.  She is urging us to sign a petition that will guarantee another lockdown.

I live in Blake Richards riding.  Blake is a conservative MP who spends 99% of his time on self-promotion.  Blake regularly sends emails out to his constituents detailing everything he is doing for them.  Lately, of course, Blakes emails are focused on COVID 1984.  On February 5 Blake sent out another self-congratulatory email.  Blake was very proud that he Demanded the Trudeau liberals set out criteria for ending the lock downs.  That email compelled me to write the following email to Blake.

 

Stop playing the liberal’s stupid games.  We do not have to wait for Vaccines to open the country up; we can simply open up now.  Covid 19 is the most overblown “crisis” I have seen in my lifetime.  Grow up.  It is not possible to prevent infections with all these nonsensical restrictions.  If you are under 70 Covid 19 is less of a threat than influenza.  Treat at risk seniors with vitamin D and ivermectin and let everyone else get on with life.

 You are not helping by playing along.  Don’t pretend that what we are doing is working and beg the prime minister to set some arbitrary target we have to hit to re-open.  Demand all restrictions are dropped unless the government can prove these silly restrictions have any affect.  I guarantee you that he cannot do that.

 Do something useful for once.

 

I will admit I was less than cordial, but I do believe I made myself clear.  Asking what conditions are necessary to lift a lockdown legitimizes the lockdown.  Lockdowns do not work.  We do not need to wait for the right astrological signs before ending them.

I did not expect a reply.  I have written Blake before without receiving a reply.  Despite my lack of cordiality this time Blake replied.  I just received this.

 

We’re now a year into the pandemic and the Trudeau government has shown it learned nothing from the first wave.

Lockdowns and restrictions were supposed to be put in place to buy governments time to get permanent solutions like vaccines, rapid testing, variant testing capacity, and therapeutics – these tools now exist. The problem is, Justin Trudeau hasn’t succeeded in bringing them to widespread use in Canada. We need to be using these tools to reduce quarantine times, like our allies around the world are doing.

By now, Canadians should know when things are going to get better. The Liberals can’t keep asking Canadians to sacrifice more without being clear when restrictions can be eased and life can begin to return to normal.

Conservatives are calling on the Liberals to give Canadians a clear plan and the information they deserve. Right now, the government continues to announce measures – such as this new border policy – but fail to provide adequate details. This is simply making Canadians even more uneasy at an already stressful time.

I encourage you to add your name and share the following petition: http://www.blakerichards.ca/covid-restrictions/

You can see a few examples of both myself and the Leader of Canada’s Conservatives, Erin O’Toole, fighting for Canadians on this issue here, here and here.

As lockdowns and other restrictions fall under provincial jurisdiction, I encourage you to also reach out to your respective provincial representative to address your concerns regarding any provincial measures they may decide to put into place.

Please know that Conservatives are fighting for Albertans in Ottawa to ensure the negative effects of COVID-19 are mitigated, and that our economy comes back stronger than ever.

Again, thank you for writing.

Sincerely,

Blake Richards, MP

Banff-Airdrie

 

You must hand it to Blake.  He never misses an opportunity to miss the point.  Lockdowns are the equivalent of a stranger punching you in the face.  It is damage inflicted on us without our consent.  Asking our assailant to set the conditions under which he will stop punching us is asinine.

Blake correctly points out that the lockdowns are provincial.  He basically admits that his demands of Trudeau are meaningless.  Then he goes on to explain he is going to continue fighting the federal government over something that is not their issue.  Blake truly takes useless to another level, doesn’t he?

Blake Richards is a professional politician.  People like Blake are why our country is such a mess.  He did not address the central point of my email.  Lockdowns do not prevent the virus from spreading.  Ending restriction immediately will make no difference to the “pandemic’.  It will, However, benefit millions of Canadians.

At the time of my email there were already multiple papers published detailing what a bad idea lockdown is.  It is not hard to do your own research and compare freedom to tyranny.  The virus thrives equally under either regime.  Blake did not even need to spend his own time doing this.  He has a staff they could have searched out this data.

Unfortunately, the only data that concerns Blake is polling data.  Scoring cheap political points criticizing the federal government for what the provincial government is doing is the only thing on Blakes calendar.  Lockdowns are provincial but a politician at any level who does not go on record opposing them is part of the problem.  Blake Richards is most definitely part of the problem.

This Democratic senator from Texas is very concerned about Texas lifting coronavirus restrictions.

Dem Rep. Gonzalez on FL Outperforming States with Strict Restrictions: Seems Like ‘Luck’ ‘of a Coin Toss’ (breitbart.com)

When he was questioned about the success Florida had without drastic restrictions he attribute it to luck.  Florida is the exception to the rule.  Without masks and lockdowns everyone in Texas would be dead already.  Unless they moved to Florida then, through some kind of divine intervention, they would be just fine.

Occam’s razor says the right answer is the one that requires the least assumptions.  The simple answer is the best answer.  What happened in Florida is not proof of divine intervention.  It is proof the strict regulations were never necessary.  Places with mask mandates are indistinguishable from places without mandates.  This is not proof that masks worked and something unusual happened where there were no masks.  It is Proof masks do not work; plain and simple.

Denial of reality is a fundamental aspect of left wing politics.  Leftists will always deny what they see with their eyes if it contradicts their preconceived ideas.  Another fundamental principal of the left is that things should be judged on their intent not their outcome.  Masks and lockdowns are inherently good because their intent was to protect people.  Therefore they should not be questioned.  The reality is that both measures are harmful.  Thankfully people on the left don’t have to acknowledge reality.  Being liberal means never having to say you are sorry.

Emphasizing Intent over outcome and ideals over reality make the lunatic left dangerous.  Unfortunately for severely normal people, those are not the most dangerous aspects of leftism.  The most dangerous tenant of left wing thinking is their embrace of Tyranny.  This unfortunate man saw this first hand as he was strip searched for eating ice cream.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2021/03/02/arrested-by-welsh-police-for-eating-an-ice-cream-on-the-beach/

This happened in Wales.  This man had to be tyrannized to protect the Welsh from a virus that has not produced any excess deaths in Wales.  In fact the current death rate in Wales is significantly below normal.  See the plot below from Euromomo.

To protect the health of the Welsh this man was justifiable strip searched for weaponizing Ice cream.  Perfectly justifiable right?

The Left is happily married to tyranny and violence.  They must be, none of their policies are every willingly adopted by normal people.  It only ever happens with the threat of violence.  Disagree with the lock down and you will be fined and strip searched.

When this madness began I told anyone who would listen that if we let them get away with this they we do it again.  Now we have the left suggesting that we use a lockdown every 2 years to fight climate change.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2021/03/05/delingpole-lockdown-equivalent-every-two-years-to-save-planet-claim-experts/

Climate change and the global COVID 19 pandemic are peas from the same liberal pod.  There is no evidence that climate does not change, or what is happening now is not normal.  Nor is there any evidence that Sars cov2 was a great plague.  The Left and the media (redundant I know) spend billions to convince the public that ordinary events are somehow extraordinary.  Of course extraordinary events require extraordinary government response, right?  Strange how the response to a virus is exactly the same as the response to the weather.  A complete loss of individual freedom and transfer of wealth.

Stop playing their stupid games.  Changing climate is normal.  There is not a period in all history when climate did not change.  COVID 19 is an ordinary seasonal virus.  In the absence of government, the death toll would have been much lower.  Stop pretending that viral deaths are 100% preventable.  More importantly stop pretending that deaths caused by government are acceptable.