The Epidemic is Over and We are Still Talking about Lockdowns and Masks
A couple of days ago I saw this tweet.
So, to those that think that all “vulnerable” people need to do is to “stay the **ck in” I have just spent 12 days alone in a hotel room, my only outings to supermarket, fully masked up. I still tested covid positive last night!
https://twitter.com/charlieboylert/status/1367773176038633472
In 2 sentences this gentleman perfectly encapsulates the incredible stupidity of the last 12 months. Masks And Lockdowns do not work and used long enough both are bad for your overall health. It is easy to fall in to the trap of believing these things will work. But the devil is in the details. Some of this is ground I have covered before but since people still won’t listen I guess I just have to repeat the obvious.
Masks
Everyone has seen a medical drama on TV where the doctors wear masks in surgery. It is easy to think that masks might be useful but the surgeon is wearing a mask to protect the patient. The most common post-surgery infections are bacterial. Bacteria are more than 10 times larger than viruses. A mask designed to filter bacteria will not stop a virus. When tested the smallest particle that a surgical mask will catch is 0.3 micron. I have not seen tests on cloth masks but a typical cotton weave is good for 25 micron. The Virus is 0.1 micron. You have to be ignorant or stupid to believe a mask will stop a virus.
Lockdowns
A virus moves from one host to another. When computer modelers try to model how a viral outbreak spreads there are 3 important factors.
- Susceptible hosts while infected (S). This is the number of people who a single person can infect.
- Length of infection (L). This is the number of days a person is infectious.
- Transmissibility (B). This is how contagious the virus is.
Modelers put all three together to get a reproductive index Ro with a very simple formula
Ro=S*L*B
In the days of covid 1984 you can even find online calculators for Ro.
Home – Ro Calculator (r0calculator.com)
When Ro is above 1 infection will increase. When Ro is below 1 the outbreak is ending. “L” and “B” can be measured in a lab or hospital. They are determined by the virus and set in stone. “S” is a wild ass guess and the source of all of our misery.
Even someone as stupid as Jason Kenney can look at this simple formula and realize the only thing that can be changes is “S”. The way that you change “S” is lock everyone down. Makes sense right? The only problem is that this simple formula is horrible wrong.
The reality is sick people do not move around anymore than is necessary. That makes “L” irrelevant. It does not matter how long you are infectious if you are secluded at home the entire time. Self-isolation also lowers “S” down to a very small number.
People who are infectious already do everything they can to limit their contact with other people. Restaurants and health clubs accounted for so few infections because sick people do not go to restaurants and health clubs. The behavior of sick people is not changed by a lockdown. Lockdowns only change the behavior of people who are not sick. That does absolutely nothing to change “S”.
So if sick people voluntarily self-isolate why does the virus still spread? Let’s go back to the tweet.
So, to those that think that all “vulnerable” people need to do is to “stay the **ck in” I have just spent 12 days alone in a hotel room, my only outings to supermarket, fully masked up. I still tested covid positive last night!
Even sick people have to eat. If you are sick and have no groceries at home what do you do? You put your silly cloth mask on and go the supermarket. You carefully stand 6 feet away from everyone and don’t touch anything without sterilizing your hands first. The government has told you that these are all the things you need to do to be a good person. Everyone wants to be a good person right?
What you have really done is release an airborne virus that sailed right through your mask in to the supermarket HVAC system. Now “S” is damn near infinite. But you did this all with the best intentions and government approval.
This truly is the stupidity of government. Instead of impeding the movement of healthy people the government should have helped sick people isolate. Instead of paying people not to work we should have paid people to do something useful. We could have hired people to make sure that people can isolate.
There should have been a number you can call for help. If you can’t order your groceries for delivery there should have been someone to get them for you. I know people scoff at this and say most companies take on line orders. The problem is not everyone is on line. My 84 year old mother in law does not own a computer. As far as I know she has never used a computer. She does not own a smart phone or any other smart device. She has smart children and grandchildren for that.
At this point all of this is moot. We are approaching both spring and herd immunity. Even if lockdowns worked we don’t need them now. The problem we face now is not that people won’t isolate, it is that they won’t stop isolating. Our governments did absolutely everything wrong. To hide their incompetence they spent lavishly on ad campaigns. COVID 1984 is the only pandemic in history that came with its own publicity department. Governments have succeeded in spreading panic and fear. That fear won’t disappear simply by lifting restrictions.
Thankfully no one wants to take your lockdown from you. If you like your mask and lockdown you can keep your mask and lockdown.
