Interesting but Dangerous times

It looks like the long awaited Ukrainian summer offensive is over almost before it started.  Things went so badly for Ukraine that Ukrainian soldiers are sabotaging their own equipment so that they cannot be sent into battle.

Kiev launched its long-expected counteroffensive this month, hoping to take advantage of newly received Western-made weapons, including main battle tanks, to push back the Russian forces. However, the Russian military has reported repelling numerous assaults and inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian forces.

The general consensus is that Ukraine was surprised at how well prepared the Russians were.  To that I say; WTF how could you have been surprised by this?  Politicians all over the world stampede towards reporters to tell them how many and what type of weapons we are giving to the Ukraine.  They even go on to brag when the weapons will be delivered and how much help we are giving Ukraine to plan their summer offensive.  So let’s recap.  By reading newspapers Russia knows the capability of the Ukrainian forces and approximately when they can expect them to attack.  How the hell could you think Russia would not be prepared?

The west is led by morons and every stupid thing they do or say right now is paid for in Ukrainian blood.  But a bunch of dead Ukrainians is no reason to abandon their quest to destroy Russia.  Just when Biden’s proxy war with Russia seems to be fizzling out in the Ukraine, suddenly, the Wagner group turns on their master and attacks the city of Rostov with 25 to 30 thousand fighters.

The media is calling this a coup.  I am not a military expert but this seems like an awfully stupid way to conduct a coup.  The point of a coup is to take over with a minimum amount of effort and bloodshed.  You quickly move in and arrest the top positions and take over the government without firing a shot.  Rostov is 1000 Km from Moscow.  Attacking Rostov does not get you anywhere near the people you need to eliminate.

Attacking with 25 to 30 thousand troops is not a coup it is an invasion.  It is also suicidal.  There is no way Wagner can take Russia with a force that small and they must know that.  Wagner would not have done this without some promise of support.  The question is support from where?  If the Support is internal then this is the start of another Russian civil war.  If the support is external (NATO) then this was the first battle of WW3.

As always with war the truth is elusive.  There are some reports Wagner has already abandoned their assault.  I don’t know how that works.  Do you think Putin is the type to forgive and forget?  And why would Wagner stop?  Does this mean they did not get the support that was promised?  Is the whole thing another bay of pigs?  Did NATO and the US just throw another Ally to the wolves as they did in Ukraine?  As Kissinger famously quipped; being the America’s enemy is dangerous, to be their friend is deadly.