Don’t follow the Hype, follow the Math
For some reason the ridiculous claim that COVID vaccinations saved 19 million lives is circulating again on twitter. The claim was made last year in the medical journal Lancet. The claim was based on extrapolating increasing COVID deaths essentially forever. The fact that the pandemic did not continue to rage was taken as proof the vaccines worked. It was politically motivated junk science that should have never been published.
The first thing any scientist must consider is whether something else could explain the phenomena you are studying. No pandemic or infectious outbreak has ever lasted forever. They all peak and fall off naturally so how do you now the decline in COVID deaths was not natural? The authors of the lancet paper basically discarded everything we know about pandemics and declared COVID would never have ended without the vaccines. There conclusions are bullshit.
Since the paper was published many people have done rather detailed math and concluded the vaccines likely save no one.
Moreover, 30% to 40% is not necessarily the true effectiveness. We have clear evidence of ‘healthy vaccinee bias‘, a type of confounding bias, in both the U.S. and the U.K.. People of the same age who were vaccinated against Covid were healthier, on average, than their unvaccinated counterparts, as evident by lower non-Covid mortality. Therefore, the unbiased VE should be smaller. For example, a modest bias correction factor around 1.5 would drive VE of 40% close to zero.
Billions have been vaccinated under the slogan”safe and effective’.
It was neither.
I don’t know why they bothered. The math is really quite simple something I pointed out in October of last year. You only need to consider 2 things. First by their design it is impossible for the COVID jabs to prevent a single infection.
When the mRNA vaccines were introduced we were told that they were +95% effective at preventing infection. Anthony Fauci and other hoaxers went on television to claim the vaccines would stop the virus in its tracks. This was a lie. It is impossible for any intramuscular injection to produce immunity to airborne viruses. These charlatans know that to be true, this is why pharmaceutical companies are working on nasal spray flu vaccines. For immunity against airborne viruses you must produce an antibody response at the point of infection which is the airways.
And that the ratio of deaths to infection did not change after vaccinating 90% of the population.
If the vaccines don’t prevent infection but do prevent serious infection then infections may not go down but deaths should. The ratio of deaths per infection should go down dramatically after vaccination programs start. So did that happen? No it did not
Here is how that math works. Let’s assume that over a set period of time 1% of people will get infected and die from COVID. If no one gets jabbed then everyone is in the same boat and in a group of 10,000 people 100 will die. Now we jab 90% of the people. The jabs cannot prevent infection so the same number of people gets infected but the Jabs save 50% of the people. Remember that is the claim the jabs do not prevent infection but they do prevent severe infection and death.
So without the jab 1% die but with the Jab only 50% of the 1% die. The ratio of deaths to infection for the jabbed is 0.5% while the un-jabbed remain the same at 1%. With that we get the following numbers.
- In an un-jabbed world 1% of 10,000 people die so total deaths are 100.
- With 90% jabbed and the jabs work 50% of the time we have 0.5% of 9,000 dying and 1% of 1,000 people dying. 45 jabbed people and 10 un-jabbed people die for total deaths of 55 people out of 10,000; a ratio of 0.55%.
Using that quick math we can see that a 50% effective treatment would have caused the infection fatality ratio to drop from 1% to 0.55% and that did not happen. The only way the jabs could work without changing the death to infection ratio would have been if the virus suddenly became far more deadly to un-jabbed. The 45 deaths prevented in the jabbed group would have to occur in the un-jabbed group so total deaths in the un-jabbed would be 55 out of 1000 or 5.5%. Do you really think a virus would sudden become 5.5 times more dangerous?
The only reason I can think of for these ridiculous claims to re-surface is that the government is planning a new vaccination program. They are priming people to believe the vaccines saved them last time so this winter, when there is a new variant or a brand new virus, you will line up for the new “vaccine”. Don’t fall for this again. MRNA injections are not vaccines and they did not work.
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