Iran, winning while losing
I was in Kuwait last week. For me the Iran war has been just news items but for the Kuwaitis it is very real. Kuwait has been forced to participate in this war, so their perspective is different and a lot more valuable than mine. The Kuwaitis I talked to are resigned to the fact that Iranians will always be a problem and we just need to find a way to live with them.
They are resigned because they are tired. No one in the police or military has had a day off since February 28th. The military and police have been stationed throughout the country watching the sky for drones. They have been trying to stop drones with conventional weapons so that they can save their patriot missiles for Iranian missiles. This task has been made much more difficult since Iran smuggled drones to ISIS in Iraq. Kuwait is now being hit from 2 sides in a war they didn’t start and want no part in.
This is how Iran wins. By wearing out the patience of America’s middle east allies. Kuwait is a staunch Ally of the US. Kuwaitis are very pro-American, and most are even very pro-Trump. They are still grateful for the US liberation of Kuwait after Saddam Hussein invaded. But their patience is wearing thin.
This is the knifes edge Donald Trump is walking. American media likes to focus on the time limits imposed by the midterm elections. Republicans don’t want to be stuck in a quagmire in the lead up to November but that is not the only time crunch Trump needs to worry about. He needs to worry about exhausting the patience of middle east nations he needs to keep pressure on Iran.
Trumps problem is that he is out of options. The Iranian leadership is willing to do the rope a dope. They are willing to absorb damage if they retain control. The only thing that can dislodge them would be a ground invasion that Trump is loath to do. Even if Trump was willing to put boots on the ground it might not even be possible.
Iran is a very large country. A ground invasion would take 100s of thousands of troops. During both previous gulf wars, the US employed overwhelming force involving more than 1 million soldiers. The US tried to control Afghanistan with only 140,000 and failed. If you can’t defeat a bunch of near stone age goat herders with 140,000 men, I don’t see how you take on Iran with any less than overwhelming force. It would take time to get that many men and that much equipment staged in the middle east.
The only place to stage the troops for a ground invasion of Iran is the desert in Northern Kuwait. There are 2 serious problems with that. First the Kuwaitis want an end not an escalation. But I am certain Kuwait could be convinced to cooperate. It is the second problem that would be the most difficult. Northern Kuwait is within easy drone and missile distance from Iran and their ISIS allies in Iraq. The American troops would be under constant attack as they were staging men and equipment.
Missiles and drones have changed the nature of modern warfare. You need boots on the ground to root out an entrenched enemy but how do you get them to the front when the enemy can strike at long distance? I think Iran wants the US to start staging troops in Kuwait. It is their only chance to inflict serious damage on the US. An invasion of Iran would not be a repeat of the gulf wars where the US safely built-up troops for months in an adjacent country. That option is no longer on the table.
I have learned not to underestimate Donald Trump. The man is a force of nature. He pisses off the left and the deep state precisely because he usually finds a way to get what he wants. He might even get a deal with Iran but if he does it will be nothing short of a miracle. Iran is losing but they have not lost. All they need to do is wait and they know that.