Children belong at the Children’s table

Children have a difficult time distinguishing reality from fantasy.  They tend to blend both in to a magical interpretation of the world around them.  This behavior in a child can be very can be delightful and endearing.  The same behavior in an adult is typically seen as a mental illness and can be dangerous even deadly.  That is exactly what we see right now in the Ukraine.  The childish thinking of western politicians is getting Ukrainians killed in great numbers.

One month ago I discussed that Ukraine’s long awaited summer offensive collapsed quickly.  Now even western media is reporting the same. Ukrainian men are dying in a futile attempt to dislodge well-fortified Russian troops.  This offensive was doomed from the start because it was based on the wishful thinking of western politicians who cannot distinguish between fantasy and reality.

BRUSSELS—When Ukraine launched its big counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew Kyiv didn’t have all the training or weapons—from shells to warplanes—that it needed to dislodge Russian forces. But they hoped Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day.

In the childish minds of western politicians Russia is weak and Russians hate Putin so much that his position is tenuous.  If Ukrainians kill one more Russian soldier the Russian military and public will turn on Putin and arrest him.  They believe Russians hate Putin because they hate Putin and they are unable to understand that the world does not work the way they wish it worked.  In their fantasy world Ukrainian troops do not need weapons, training, or numbers.  They will triumph solely on the virtuosity bestowed on them by ultra-virtuous western leaders.  It is the classic childhood tale of good defeating evil despite all odds.

For the sake of the Ukrainian people it is time to grow up.  Yes it is unfair that Russia invaded but who ever said that the world was fair?  Adults know that fair or not you must acknowledge reality.  The reality is that Ukraine cannot beat Russia.  Trying to dislodge Russia now will just get more Ukrainians killed over an area that does not even want to be part of the Ukraine.

The area that Russia occupies now for centuries had always been part of Russia.  It only became part of the Ukraine under the Soviet Union.  In fact there was never even a country named Ukraine until the Soviet Union.  Ukrainians were like the Kurds, they were always a distinct ethnic group but the never had their own country.  They finally got their own country but the eastern portion was full of Russians who have now twice voted to leave the Ukraine.  How is the Ukraine war about defending democracy when it is really about denying eastern Ukraine the fundamental democratic right of self-determination?

The smart move would have been to avoid this war altogether but that ship has sailed.  Now the smart thing is to let eastern Ukraine have what they voted for, independence.  Negotiate a peace with Russia that allows ethnic Ukrainians in these areas to choose to stay or leave with safety guarantees for those who choose to stay.  That would be the smart thing to do but when was the last time you saw a western politician do anything smart?  They always double down on stupid and that is where we are headed with the Ukraine.

As the likelihood of any large-scale breakthrough by the Ukrainians this year dims, it raises the unsettling prospect for Washington and its allies of a longer war—one that would require a huge new infusion of sophisticated armaments and more training to give Kyiv a chance at victory.

This is exactly the same strategy that we have used unsuccessfully for 18 months and the only idea these morons can come up with is to keep doing it.  Grow up it is over.  Enough Ukrainians have died already and the west is out of ammunition anyway.  If there was a single fully formed adult involved in western government we would have acknowledged this long ago.  Instead the perpetual children in charge will opt for a larger war that they cannot not win.  The west cannot win a war against Russia because China will not allow it.  Large conflicts are won by the side that can produce the most weapons and China can produce a staggering number of weapons.

The data compiled by the Office of Naval Intelligence says that a growing gap in fleet sizes is being helped by China’s shipbuilders being more than 200 times more capable of producing surface warships and submarines. This underscores longstanding concerns about the U.S. Navy’s ability to challenge Chinese fleets, as well as sustain its forces afloat, in any future high-end conflict.

There is no way we can defeat Russia or any other country china chooses to support.  All they need is soldiers and china will supply the rest.  How do you think we will win a war where Russia has unlimited ammunition when we start without any?  The west is doomed as long as simple minded children like Trudeau, Biden, and Macron remain in charge.