A Post for New Readers

A couple days ago I reached out to a LinkedIn connection who is a strong advocate for freedom.  I volunteered to send her some data showing how artificial this emergency has really been.  This morning she endorsed my blog on Linkedin.  I don’t know if this will result in more readers.  If it does it will be more a testament of her popularity than mine.

That being said I will happily accept her endorsement.  I started this blog to disseminate information as widely as possible.  People need information to push back on these unnecessary regulations.  Since my email was a very good summary I have decided to post it.  The information will be familiar to anyone who regularly visits my blog.  If you are new to my blog welcome.  I hope you find this enlightening.

What I am about to present is evidence that we do not have a public health emergency and that the lockdowns have killed more people than the virus.  Here is my email (minus email addresses and names).



Sorry for the length but you need to know where the numbers come from.


I have been tracking COVID numbers since March 2020.  The numbers I was tracking were not alarming to me and it did not take much time to figure out that even those numbers were artificially high.  It is very easy to produce COVID cases and COVID deaths.  The PCR test is prone to false positives and you can print anything on a death certificate.  I always try to find actual deaths due to all causes.  If we have a problem you can see it there.

Statscan publishes Canadian deaths every 5 weeks.  The numbers are 10 weeks behind and even then are not accurate.  Funny how we know exactly how many people die of COVID everyday even though we are not sure how many people died 10 weeks ago.  Because the data is not complete I always adjust the numbers up before using them.  I base my adjustments on how much the back data changes from one data release to another. When I go back months later I find even my adjustments are very close but still a little low.  Not low enough to change any conclusions though.

Here is what the statscan numbers say for the last 11 years.


When I adjust for population I get this


Again there is no good population data for 2021 so I estimate it by increasing it the same amount that it increased from 2019 to 2020.

Even adjusted for population, deaths in Canada are increasing every year.  That is what our world class health care system gives us, ever increasing mortality.  The point is I can’t compare this year to a year 5 years ago because that would ignore that even a normal year now could have more deaths than a bad year 5 years ago.  This is the trick the media uses they compare absolute numbers without adjusting for the rising baseline.

I use a simple way to adjust for the rising baseline.  Summers are very consistent.  I draw a line through the summers and flatten on that.  This is what I get.


COVID does not look very scary now.  It just looks like a bad flu.  Flu season does not follow the calendar year so the best thing to do is compare mid-year to mid-year.  With the numbers adjusted for population and rising base line this is what I get.


Can you spot the pandemic?

Of course politicians will say that this is just proof the restrictions worked and it would have been much worse.  If that is the case you have a hard case explaining the next 2 plots.

There are people who track excess deaths and people who track lockdown severity or stringency.  I found the 2 data sets and put them together for all the countries that had data for both.  This is the first plot I produced.


That line is sloping the wrong direction.  The more strict the lockdown the higher the excess deaths.  I then grouped the countries in to high medium and low stringency and averaged the excess deaths (Canada is in the high group).


Lockdowns may have prevented some COVID but the overall effect was overwhelmingly negative.  Fewer people may have died of COVID (even that is debatable) but the lockdowns caused more deaths in other ways.  The data would indicate that most of the deaths were caused by the government since countries that used light restrictions had near 0 excess deaths.

Not only was there nothing special about 2019/2020 and 2020/21 we actually would have had fewer deaths if it was not for our government.






2 replies
  1. Trevor
    Trevor says:

    Great summary email Richard.

    I find it simply mind boggling. All of your data comes straight from official government sources. You have done very basic analysis. I know you have not tampered with the data as I have done similar simple analysis and got basically the same results. This is NOT at all rocket science. No offense, but your analysis can be done by anyone with a grade 12 education, internet connection and an ounce of curiosity. 99% of Canadians have the first two. Apparently only 1% have all three.

    The data leads unequivocally to the opposite conclusions that we hear from government officials and media.

    History is chock full to the brim with governments killing its citizens either on purpose or by accident. The awful thing is that government has zero power that hasn’t first been ceded to it by its citizens. For what is government but the collective will of the people.

    Keep up the great work.

    • richardsuffron
      richardsuffron says:

      You are absolutely correct Trevor. What I am doing is not rocket science. It never rises to a level above high school math and science. All I add is a little logic. That is what makes this so frustrating; anyone can do it, so why don’t they? Why do people so easily accept a loss of freedom? Even if you don’t want to do the science can’t you trust your own eyes? Do you know anyone who had an infection that didn’t just look like the flu? Do you know anyone who died who was not already on deaths doorstep? I know only one person who was infected and that was post vaccination. I do not know anyone who has died. I do know however, one person killed by the lockdowns, two killed by the vaccine, and one person who had a near miss from a severe vaccine reaction. My own personal experience tells me the government and their vaccines are a far larger problem than the virus. How can my experience be that different than everyone else?


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